Fritolaysia and Snakistan made the front page of the Onion today.

Stereotypes of this region nonetheless show through.

neweurasia posted recently on this International Herald Tribune article raising a timeless question–how sincere is the government about fair elections? The article says it is all show, citing issues with opposition newspapers being seized, and the overall autocratic politics of former Soviet leaders; my own earlier post was presented as evidence that the registration is being taken quite seriously. And I will say that I have seen no evidence of dirty pool in general, though a fair amount of self-censorship. As was pointed out in neweurasia here Nazarbayev would appear to be more at risk of the appearance of election fraud due to high election results, than actual election fraud. The appearance of free elections is key to both international image in general and OSCE leadership in 2009.

To give an idea of how serious the Kazakhstan government is about these elections appearing to be free, we can look at the International Media Center’s report for the 14th to the 20th Novemeber. Authorized by the Ministry of Culture, Information, and Sport to monitor media coverage, the report covers objective statistics about coverage of each candidate. A sampling:

1. The Nazarbayev quotation index as presidential candidate is notably lower than
the number of commercials and references focusing on his activity as Head of
State. Abylkasymov and Yeleusizov are reviewed only as candidates. Tuyakbai
and Baimenov are mentioned in other connections also.
2. Most of the Nazarbayev credits are provided by non-governmental channels.
Tuyakbai’s and Yeleusizov’s coverage is approximately equal in the state
owned and non-governmental channels, while the activity of Abylkasymov and
Baimenov is featured somewhat more by the state television than the non-governmental
channels.

This is followed by actual statistics of time, source, and attitude (positive, negative, neutral). Needless to say Nazarbayev wins hands down for coverage–though this includes coverage of him as President. The Ministry makes frequent, publically broadcasted, announcements of these sorts of results. One wonders if it includes the free newspapers stuffed in mailboxes–most of which are pro-opposition.

This is all very good, (more…)

In the last post, I should have mentioned more explicitly that the IFES mailing group is excellent for a wide range of news on the election–international, local, and foreign news sources are compiled and sent out once a week. It’s a nice range of views presented without commentary–and unfortunately without links!

You can subscribe at yahoogroups: Kaz-Elections

Unfortunate Incidents and Warnings of Violence

After the Kyrgyz revolution, the government of Kazakhstan (among other nations) took a long hard look at their own situation and potential for such an uprising. A number of statements were made to the effect that Kazakhstan was too politically and socially stable, that the level of living was too high for such revolutions. In different shades, comments were made that Nazarbayve was too strong, that Akaev was known to be weak and it was his fault for running like he did. The Kazakh nation is too proud to shame their nation by revolting and threatening the stability and power of the state. Confident statements were made by Ministers, by the President, and his daughter that a colored revolution could not happen here. Some spurious comments have been made, espeically by outsiders, that Astana and Almaty are such beautiful, wonderful cities with great supermarkets full of good and stand as proof of the greatness of life in Kazakhstan—ignoring the poorer parts of the country, not to mention the cities and the very real problems that do exist in Kazakhstan. An article appeared in the Almaty Herald praising the strength of Nazarbayev and comparing him to other strong leaders, essentially claiming that it was right for a leader to destroy his enemies in any way possible. One would hope for a leader who also did some leading upon occasion of course. Protests and assaults were made, apparently without any official involvement, against Tuyakbai and his campaign leaders, by people carrying signs to the effect that he was destroying his nation by promoting foment.

Nonetheless, note was made that the threat existed of such a revolution—that the opposition was frustrated (whether because of the Administration’s injustices or because of their own weakness), that people can become infected, that the corrupted West was planting illegitimate roots in Kazakhstan, that certain elements could use revolution and anarchy to empower themselves. Note was made that the police have ordered crowd control weapons, and also machine guns, and were training in putting down rallies. The Kyrgyzstan revolution and its aftermath were shown in the press in terms of anarchy and rumors were spread that Russians were running away, cars were being impounded by the police on the road from Almaty to Bishkek. And to be fair, things aren’t pretty at the moment, through evidence exists that people still live there and go about their business.

Now we have some ominous announcements (more…)

The Embassy puts out information for anyone interested, and the list can be subscribed to by writing to: info@kazakhembus.com.

A couple of landmarks:
1) Kazakhstan signed the United Nations’ International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights on November 21. This is taken as a sign of increasing democratization.

2) The national polling agency KazRating shows Nazarbayev with 76% of the votes in Almaty and 75% of the respondants will vote while 8.6% will abstain. This marks a 5% increase in popularity for Nazarbayev since the beginning of the campaign on Oct. 25th.

3) The first “One stop” goverment center in Kazakhstan opened in Astana (where all government agencies are located, making it the least needed location for such an office). This project was proposed last year to let people register to vote, get marriage licenses, driver’s licenses, pay taxes, etc. all in one office. I had understood that the point was to give people in small towns and villages a chance to access these services without having to go all the way to a big city but here they claim it will fight corruption. The offices will be computerized and networked, which I can tell you is painfully needed (Nothing is more horrible than watching a babushka seek your name in the hand-written journals).

4) In the cabinet meeting, at which the President announced Astana would become the new financial center of Kazakhstan subtly signaling the death of Almaty, the Prime Minister also announced that Kazakhstan should be ready for the WTO by the middle of next year.

And let’s not forget that next week is Almaty Fashion Week! And here I am in Astana. Ctolitsa nashi strani, indeed!

[EDIT: An unnamed Russian-based survey group reports that 75% of the electorate is against Nazarbayev on the heavily opposition, anti-Nazarbayev IAC Eurasia. 75% may just be a magic number.]

My Detention By The Russian Border Guards, In Verse, With Ryhme Patterns That Change Abruptly And Without Warning

by Ryan Giordano in Kokshetau.

This is very good and also a lesson in Kazakh!

Kor raxmet Ryan-a true aytis!

courtesy of Registan.net

A Russian-based NGO has been refused observer status on the grounds that they are not an international organization. RFE/RL story here.

As far as I gathered from Khabar yesterday, they plan to protest it in court. Nathan links to a nice explanation of who these guys are.

[EDIT; And on the opposition-biased IAC Eurasia, some reported irregularities,
including that CIS-EMO was registered as an international organization in Ukraine, and that they were under heavy surviellience by the police.

The note has been made that these are not official CIS observers, but their reports are often in line with official CIS results, so it seems like potentially a good sign that they are not accredited, though this seems more in line with the “No foreign interference” line than anything else. Still the CIS monitors tended to heap praises on the previous elections–and were thus cited often in the official press–whereas the OSCE tended to point to flaws and issues. So this might also go under the “We want the OSCE chairmanship” policy.

Note this quote on: Kazelection2005 a website specially designed for foreigners to understand the election.

The OSCE is satisfied with the recent decision of the Constitutional Council to recognise the law on NGOs as non-complying with the Constitution of the Republic of Kazakhstan.” “[This is] an important and doubtlessly a positive step of Kazakhstan in its wish to assert itself as a democratic state.
Mr Ivar Vikki, Head of the OSCE office in Almaty, August 30th 2005

Having worked in the Kazakhstan government, I can picture the bureaucrat who came up with the idea of putting OSCE quotes up, not to mention the recent Condoleeza Rice quote on the index page. I’m sure his boss loved it but it strikes a note or overdoneness to me.

Registan.net has a link to an interim report on the elections as well.

All That’s Leftsky is a poli-sci major at the University of Louisville has apparently resolved to write a letter a week to Congress either pro- or anti- a bill. Yesterday’s was S. RES. 293, 27 October 2005 which supports a free and fair election in Kazakhstan.
His reasons include the strategic resources and growing economic influence of the nation, and also the potential ripple effects on other nations badly in need of democratization, including Russia (this will warm the Slavic heart) and of course it’s geopolitical location between Russia and China.

The resolution itself can be found here: Calling for a free and fair presidential election in the Republic of Kazakhstan (more…)

DNews, claiming to be: “Opinionated news exctraction (sic) for all by that geeky accountant type guy…” proves that the Borat incident has hit such levels as to reach Australia.

I neglected to append the comment from the official from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs that 1) Borat might be an agent of someone or other–that always means America or the opposition and 2) They might take legal action to prevent future pranks, cause that seemed to get good coverage

He provides in answer, I’m not sure pro or anti or netural, 50 Things About Kazakhstan You May Not Know, apparently originally published by The Independent. If that isn’t a drinking game, I don’t know what is.

Highlights with commentary
(more…)

First a public service announcement:

My first encounter with the election came when a knock came at my door on a Sunday morning. I growled, “Who’s there?” in my meanest voice as one does. A timid voice replied, “The school, about the elections.” This made sufficently little sense as to tempt to me open the door. Two middle-school girls were standing on my door with the voter-registration form. They asked me to fill it out and when I explained that I wasn’t a citizen, they pressed that I should really fill it out. I pointed out that that might be against the law, and they got scared and left. (more…)