Christopher Pala who writes for The New York Times and The Washington Post, has an article summarizing the situation around the OSCE leadership bid. It’s a good summary in a few words but the last paragraphs highlight an issue that I haven’t seen too much discussion of: Kazakhstan’s reaction if it is turned down.

European countries were at first skeptical of Kazakhstan’s bid, but many decided to support it on the grounds that the regime’s pro-democratic forces would be empowered by the chairmanship’s spotlight, while hard-liners would increase their influence if it were denied.
“There will be no more incentive for progress if Kazakhstan doesn’t get it,” said Yevgeny Zhovtis, the country’s leading human rights campaigner.
“If they do, I don’t say they will necessarily behave better, but the context will be better. If not, the anti-American forces will become stronger and more public, Kazakhstan will move closer to Russia, and repression will be worse.”
Another Western diplomat noted that the issue comes after Russia and its former colonies have been demanding efforts to make the OSCE human rights and election monitoring less intrusive — changes the West refuses to consider.
“If Kazakhstan is turned down, there’s a good chance the hard-line countries could make it harder for OSCE missions to operate in their countries, cooperate less with the election monitoring missions and refuse to pass the budget,” the Western diplomat said.

I’m not sure Kazakhstan should be given the chairmanship based purely on the argument that if they don’t, they’ll start to get real mean. It’s a bit akin to giving in to a child who threatends to have a temper tantrum (the metaphor may be unfair). But if there was reason to believe the chairmanship would be a kind of incentive to further freedoms, that would be reasonable. I’m not convinced it would for the same reasons that serious reforms have not been implemented (and I think Mr. Pala is unfair to say that “not even cosmetic reforms” have begun): Kazakhstan is much more interested in the prestige of the office than the meaning of the office. Kazakhstan is looking for a resume booster, something KazMunaiGas can put on its marketing brochures.

I think it is likely that a rejection will have a backlash along the lines of “Well, they’re too strict anyway, who needs all their rules? What does it take to make these intrusive Western countries happy?”. However, I do see a general trend toward more freedom and democracy (though I question what will happen in 2012 when a new President is elected), and while there are many different motives for that, from honest belief in democracy to a desire for prestige or the elusive Euro-standard, I suspect the tide is unstoppable especially as it is being accompanied by business alliances which will demand more openess. My two cents. What do you think?

Thanks to Nathan at Registan.net:

A video testament from the Krishna community in Kazakhstan:

Also, the OSCE has released a statement on the destruction, reading in part:

The Advisory Council … calls upon the Kazakh authorities to halt any further demolitions and to extend immediate humanitarian assistance to those whose homes have been destroyed …This raises serious issues regarding the enjoyment of the freedom of religion and belief by members of the Hare Krishna community in Kazakhstan.

Video on Youtube of the destruction. Note the snow falling. Also note that the Krishnas appear to be Kazakhstany, not Hindu though there is reason to believe Hindus are being targeted.

According to Forum 18, the President’s brother may have been behind this, wanting to get his hands on the property, though this is unconfirmed. The farm is located in Nazarbayev’s home region of Keskelen. They also note that houses on the same property were not destroyed, only those belonging to Krishnas:

But two human rights activists who witnessed the destruction despite police attempts to stop them, Ninel Fokina and Andrei Grishin, pointed out that while 13 of the 66 Hare Krishna homes were destroyed on court orders, “the adjacent houses of other people who do not belong to the Society for Krishna Consciousness were left untouched even though their title deeds have the same status”.

Apparently, Tony Blair raised the matter with Nazarbayev (more…)

On the 22nd of November, outside Almaty, local authorities destroyed the only Hare Krishna commune in the CIS, a total of eleven houses on 48 acres. The group apparently was not prepared because:

The group apparently was not prepared because there is currently
a state special commission – appointed to investigate allegations of religious harassment against Hindus in Kazakhstan – had promised that no government action would be taken until the commission made its findings public.

RFE/RL notes that temperatures were predicted to be below freezing last night and that an OSCE official was observing. It is not the first time this has happened, on the 25th April five cottages were destroyed by order of the regional court on the 29th of March. At that time, there were protests that the court did not give the prescribed 5 days warning, but the regional officials claimed everything was done by proper procedure, and announced that five more cottages were up for confiscation and demolition. The regional court also decided that the commune not be compensated.
(more…)

All That’s Leftsky is a poli-sci major at the University of Louisville has apparently resolved to write a letter a week to Congress either pro- or anti- a bill. Yesterday’s was S. RES. 293, 27 October 2005 which supports a free and fair election in Kazakhstan.
His reasons include the strategic resources and growing economic influence of the nation, and also the potential ripple effects on other nations badly in need of democratization, including Russia (this will warm the Slavic heart) and of course it’s geopolitical location between Russia and China.

The resolution itself can be found here: Calling for a free and fair presidential election in the Republic of Kazakhstan (more…)